中職錯誤引用與解讀優質先發 引發爭議

出版時間:2019/05/01 19:07

富邦悍將洋投索沙昨天在新莊對Lamigo桃猿投出8局失4分的內容,中職官方紀錄系統認定是一場「優質先發」(Quality Start,簡稱QS),與一般認定的「先發至少6局且責失在3以內」的定義不同,引發爭議。

中職在昨晚賽後紀錄簡報中,先是標出索沙中斷連6場QS,但經Lamigo TV主播徐展元求證後,中職更正紀錄,認定索沙昨天完成「優質先發」,且開季連7場持續中。

徐展元也貼出中職回應的「原文出處」做佐證,但經過查證,這段原文並非是「優質先發」的定義,而是一段關於優質先發正反兩面的討論,其中反面的看法認為QS的門檻非常不優,而且局數定得很死,不能調整,標準應該要訂得更高才對,像是5局失2分、6局失2分、7局失3分、8局失3分或9局失4分等等。

但這段原文並非是大聯盟官方對於QS正式義,就只是一篇討論(完整原文列在新聞最下方),真正大聯盟官網的QS定義應是,

連結:正確的大聯盟官網「優質先發」定義

Definition(定義)
A starting pitcher records a quality start when he pitches at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer. (先發投手的優質先發紀錄必須是至少投6局,且責失分必須是3分或更少)

大聯盟官方認定的QS定義,從1985年《費城詢問報》記者洛伊(John Lowe)創造這個詞以來從來都沒有變過,洛伊後來為《底特律自由報》工作,倪福德在2009年於老虎上大聯盟時,曾受到這位資深大聯盟記者的關注。

而多年來,美媒各界對於QS的認定或質疑一直都有,歷史名投萊恩(Nolan Ryan)甚至曾提出「高優質先發」(High Quality Start)一詞,但目前最普遍使用的還是洛伊創造的QS。

QS的定義只有2個條件,一是先發至少6局,二是責失最多3分,從來沒有更改過。曾有過是否改條件的討論,認為超過6局的單場防禦率在4.5以內,是否也可認定為「優質先發」,如此一來,8局失4分、9局失4分都在標準內。

但無論是大聯盟官網、維基百科,還是棒球權威統計網站「Baseball Reference」,所有關於QS的定義仍是「先發至少6局且責失在3以內」,並沒有改變。

中職針對「優質先發」定義,給徐展元的原文引用出錯,並且發生解釋謬誤,已引發網友爭議,出現中職認定QS獨步全球的笑話,而中職所有針對「優質先發」的統計數據,全都出錯。

以下是中職針對「優質先發」,給徐展元的原本「出處」,

Quality Starts
Pros:
The reasons to use quality starts are easier to quantify and easier for me to talk about, since I prefer the category myself. First and foremost, quality starts are entirely dependent on the starting pitcher (and his defense) and have no connection to his team's offense. The pitcher has significant control on whether he gets a quality start or not and it is a good evaluator of a pitcher's performance. More on this later. Like wins and strikeouts, they are a counting stat to balance out the two rate stats of ERA and WHIP. And while the minimum quality start of 6 innings with 3 earned runs is a poor 4.50 ERA, most quality starts actually have a much better ERA than that.

Cons:
That minimum requirement for a quality start is pretty bad. Furthermore, it is rigid and doesn't adjust with innings pitched. A better stat would require something like 5 innings with 2 ER or fewer, 6 innings with 2 ER or fewer, 7 innings with 3 ER or fewer, 8 innings with 3 ER or fewer, and 9 innings with 4 ER or fewer. Currently, a pitcher would not get a quality start for pitching 5 perfect innings and getting pulled, or even pitching nine innings with 4 ER, even though that is better than the 4.5 ERA you get in the basic QS.

Thus, managers with a quick hook become an issue. Tampa Bay last season is a great example, as their club philosophy was to pull starters before seeing the other lineup a third or fourth time, usually in the fifth inning. This was painful as a Nate Karns owner in a deep league with QS. He would pitch well for five innings and then be pulled. Another issue is that relievers can ruin a quality start. I can't count how many times my starter left in the seventh after allowing three or fewer runs and then a reliever comes on and allows inherited runners to score, blowing the quality start.

(謝岱穎/綜合報導)

想知道更多,一定要看……
【中職】萊福力7局失1分優質先發 中信6:1勝統一
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【日職】陽岱鋼敲台將令和首安、首打點 巨人5比1勝中日

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